About CrisisArc

PUBLIC BETA

CrisisArc is a geopolitical reaction probability engine for energy markets.

FOR EVERY CRISIS EVENT

How oil markets have historically reacted to similar events

The probability of price moving UP, DOWN, or showing NO MATERIAL MOVE

In the current crisis phase, with sample size and confidence

THE REAL EDGE

Identifying when dramatic headlines will NOT move markets.

Most geopolitical events produce no material oil price reaction. Knowing when to ignore noise is as valuable as catching signal.

FIVE-GATE RELEVANCE FILTER

Every event passes through a five-stage relevance filter before reaching the prediction engine. Only events with a direct pathway to oil supply, flow, or policy are classified.

Crisis Relevance

Is this event related to an active geopolitical crisis?

Oil Relevance

Does it have a direct or indirect link to oil markets?

Article Kind

Is this a reportable event, not commentary or recap?

Actionability

Could this move the market if traded on?

Approved Event Type

Does it match a strict whitelist of oil-relevant event types?

PREDICTION INTEGRITY

Every prediction is logged, timestamped, and publicly verified. CrisisArc never edits results. Predictions are locked to a specific oil price at t0 and evaluated against actual movement at 15-minute and 60-minute windows. The public scoreboard shows the full record.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing on this platform constitutes financial advice. CrisisArc is an information tool — not a trading bot, not a signal service, not a recommendation engine.