Public Scoreboard

Transparent prediction tracking — every call logged, never edited.

CrisisArc measures reaction probability calibration, not directional accuracy. Directional accuracy alone does not represent system performance.

PUBLIC BETA — Model in Active Development

Calibration data reflects the first 3–4 weeks of operation on a single crisis. The model is being actively improved — prediction logic, event filtering, and probability calibration are updated weekly based on forensic analysis of outcomes. See methodology →

PHASE

Reaction Calibration

Highest-prob outcome matched actual

43.2%32/74

Mean prob assigned to actual outcome

39.1%

Flat prediction accuracy

23%7/31
By family:tanker_traffic_resumes_through_chokepoint10/22(45%)refinery_fire_or_explosion0/13(0%)diplomatic_mediation_accepted5/9(56%)tanker_attack2/7(29%)opec_emergency_production_increase5/5(100%)dovish_rhetoric3/5(60%)peace_negotiations_confirmed2/4(50%)reserve_release1/2(50%)export_terminal_damage0/1(0%)hormuz_closure1/1(100%)missile_strike_on_energy_infrastructure0/1(0%)sanctions_on_oil_exports0/1(0%)oil_field_shutdown1/1(100%)emergency_reserve_coordination_iea1/1(100%)tanker_seizure1/1(100%)
By phase:ABSORPTION31/71(44%)NORMALIZATION1/3(33%)
By n:n<5LOW DATA5/16(31%)n5-14EARLY SIGNAL7/26(27%)n15-39DEVELOPING11/26(42%)n40-79STABLE7/14(50%)n80+HIGH CONFIDENCE7/8(88%)

n<5: base-rate smoothing only — not event-specific prediction. Excluded from headline accuracy.

Move Detection

When a real price move occurred (>0.5%), did the model identify the correct direction?

90.4%Correct: 47/52
Pipeline:2507ingested→259model-eligible→90resolved|10mkt closed (excluded)
By move class:STRUCT5/20(25%)NARR13/49(27%)NOISE5/21(24%)

Dual Accuracy — 60 min

Total (incl NO_MOVE)

25.6%23/90

Directional (excl NO_MOVE)

31.3%21/67

NO_PREDICTION

23events gated

Measured on model-eligible events only. Events that fail the five-gate filter are excluded from this metric.

Apr 6 07:30

Iran and the United States have received a Pakistani plan to end hostilities, starting with a ​cease...

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 22%·DN 22%·NM 56% (±0.3%)|n=18DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (-0.36%)✓ matched
+0.31(15m)-1.00(30m)-0.39(60m)-0.69(4h)+0.81(12h)+2.10(24h)
Apr 6 07:14

Iran and the United States have received a plan to end hostilities that could come into effect on Ap...

DIPS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
UP 23%·DN 23%·NM 53%|n=7EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:DOWN (-1.33%)✗ missed
-0.23(15m)+0.06(30m)-1.45(60m)-1.40(4h)+0.54(12h)+1.91(24h)
Apr 6 06:18

NASA's FIRMS detected a large fire at the oil loading terminal during multiple passes. https://t.co/...

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 49% (+1.4%)·DN 18%·NM 33%|n=17DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (-0.39%)✗ missed
+0.17(15m)+0.57(30m)-0.43(60m)-1.26(4h)+0.94(12h)+1.29(24h)
Apr 6 02:42

US, Iran and mediators make push for 45-day ceasefire, Axios reports https://t.co/HCDvQ142S9 https:/...

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 29%·DN 23%·NM 48%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.33%)✓ matched
+0.06(15m)+0.27(30m)+0.36(60m)+0.44(4h)-1.41(12h)+1.52(24h)
Apr 5 22:56

15 SHIPS PASSED THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN 24 HOURS AFTER OBTAINING IRAN'S PERMISSION - FARS

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 41% (+1.8%)·DN 18% (-1.7%)·NM 41% (±0.2%)|n=49STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.17%)✗ missed
-0.35(15m)-0.27(30m)+0.19(60m)-1.43(4h)-3.10(12h)-1.28(24h)
Apr 5 22:30

BREAKING: Our satellite imagery analysis shows that a sanctions-compliant, empty VLCC supertanker ha...

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 41% (+1.8%)·DN 18% (-1.7%)·NM 41% (±0.2%)|n=49STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.08%)✗ missed
+0.22(15m)-0.11(30m)+0.09(60m)-0.88(4h)-2.65(12h)-1.06(24h)
Apr 5 20:42

OPEC+ Agrees To Boost Output By Another 206,000 Barrels A Day When Strait Of Hormuz Reopens https://...

ECOS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 42% (+1.8%)·DN 16% (-1.0%)·NM 42% (±0.2%)|n=352HIGH CONFIDENCE
Actual:UP (+2.02%)✓ matched
+2.20(15m)+2.20(30m)+2.20(60m)+1.86(4h)-0.35(12h)+0.61(24h)
Apr 5 19:30

Iraq thanks Iran for allowing Iraqi oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/0m8J5oJ79f

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 41% (+1.8%)·DN 18% (-1.7%)·NM 41% (±0.2%)|n=49STABLE
Actual:UP (+2.02%)✓ matched
+2.20(15m)+2.20(30m)+2.20(60m)+2.24(4h)+0.15(12h)+0.96(24h)
Apr 5 18:08

OPEC+: As part of our commitment to supporting the stability of the oil market, 8 countries have dec...

ECOS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
UP 42% (+1.8%)·DN 16% (-1.0%)·NM 42% (±0.2%)|n=352HIGH CONFIDENCE
Actual:UP (+2.03%)✓ matched
+1.97(15m)+2.21(30m)+2.21(60m)+2.21(4h)+0.95(12h)+1.87(24h)
Apr 5 17:46

*SHARJAH: INTERCEPTION DEBRIS FELL ON UAE'S KHOR FAKKAN PORT *SHARJAH: RESULTING FIRE IS UNDER CONTR...

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABS
Calibrating...n=4
Actual:UP (+2.03%)✓ matched
+2.21(15m)+2.21(30m)+2.21(60m)+2.21(4h)+0.94(12h)+1.44(24h)
Apr 5 16:54

Around 3,000 ships stranded around Hormuz Strait, passage down 94%: Data https://t.co/am9hbPxsyG

SHPS5ESCBULLSTRUCTABS
UP 42% (+1.8%)·DN 16% (-1.0%)·NM 42% (±0.2%)|n=352HIGH CONFIDENCE
Actual:UP (+2.03%)✓ matched
+2.21(15m)+2.21(30m)+2.21(60m)+2.21(4h)+0.67(12h)-0.34(24h)
Apr 5 14:48

Iran, Oman hold talks on safe passage through Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/rD3sFGk1K8

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 49% (+1.1%)·DN 18%·NM 33% (±0.2%)|n=33DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+2.03%)✓ matched
+2.21(15m)+2.21(30m)+2.21(60m)+2.21(4h)+0.73(12h)-0.60(24h)
Apr 5 14:36

Container ship reports incident at UAE's Khor Fakkan port, UKMTO says https://t.co/V0qHCL0LgK https:...

SHPS2ESCBULLNOISEABS
Calibrating...n=4
Actual:UP (+2.03%)✓ matched
+2.21(15m)+2.21(30m)+2.21(60m)+2.21(4h)+0.58(12h)-0.65(24h)
Apr 5 14:32

Global Plastics Supply Chains Further Pressured As Abu Dhabi Petrochemicals Plant "Suspended" After ...

INFS4ESCBULLSTRUCTABS
UP 44%·DN 4%·NM 53%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.03%)✗ missed
+2.21(15m)+2.21(30m)+2.21(60m)+2.21(4h)+0.32(12h)-0.73(24h)
Apr 5 14:22

Members of the opec plus 8, decide to unwind 206k for the month of May.

ECOS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 42% (+1.8%)·DN 16% (-1.0%)·NM 42% (±0.2%)|n=352HIGH CONFIDENCE
Actual:UP (+1.81%)✓ matched
+2.21(15m)+1.97(30m)+1.97(60m)+2.21(4h)+1.21(12h)+0.29(24h)
Apr 5 13:40

Iran allows Iraqi ships through Hormuz strait - ft

SHPS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
UP 41% (+1.8%)·DN 18% (-1.7%)·NM 41% (±0.2%)|n=49STABLE
Actual:UP (+2.03%)✓ matched
+2.21(15m)+2.21(30m)+2.21(60m)+2.21(4h)+1.29(12h)+0.22(24h)
Apr 5 13:04

UPDATE: OCEAN THUNDER (9416422) is now departing southbound via the Strait of Hormuz with a million ...

SHPS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
UP 39%·DN 17%·NM 44%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.00%)✗ missed
+2.18(15m)+2.18(30m)+2.18(60m)+2.18(4h)+1.70(12h)-0.63(24h)
Apr 5 12:44

IRAQ THANKS IRAN OVER ALLOWING IRAQI TANKERS TO TRANSIT STRAIT OF HORMUZ - IRAQ'S STATE NEWS AGENCY

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 41% (+1.8%)·DN 18% (-1.7%)·NM 41% (±0.2%)|n=49STABLE
Actual:UP (+2.00%)✓ matched
+2.18(15m)+2.18(30m)+2.18(60m)+2.18(4h)+1.76(12h)-0.53(24h)
Apr 5 10:52

A tanker carrying Iraqi oil has now crossed the Strait of Hormuz (following the “new” sea lane via L...

SHPS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
UP 39%·DN 17%·NM 44%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.01%)✗ missed
+2.19(15m)+2.19(30m)+2.19(60m)+2.19(4h)+2.19(12h)-0.85(24h)
Apr 5 10:44

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation: An immoral Iranian attack on a number of our operational facilities th...

INFS4ESCBULLSTRUCTABS
UP 44%·DN 4%·NM 53%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.01%)✗ missed
+2.19(15m)+2.19(30m)+2.19(60m)+2.19(4h)+2.19(12h)-0.96(24h)
Apr 5 10:02

Oman News Agency: Omani-Iranian meeting to discuss options for ensuring smooth transit in the Strait...

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 49% (+1.1%)·DN 18%·NM 33% (±0.2%)|n=33DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+1.92%)✓ matched
+2.09(15m)+2.09(30m)+2.09(60m)+2.09(4h)+2.09(12h)-1.21(24h)
Apr 5 09:50

Core group of OPEC+ members has an agreement in principle to increase production levels by about 206...

ECOS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
UP 42% (+1.8%)·DN 16% (-1.0%)·NM 42% (±0.2%)|n=352HIGH CONFIDENCE
Actual:UP (+1.92%)✓ matched
+2.09(15m)+2.09(30m)+2.09(60m)+2.09(4h)+2.09(12h)-1.80(24h)
Apr 5 08:06

core group in OPEC+ agrees in principle to increase production levels by about 206 thousand barrels ...

ECOS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
UP 42% (+1.8%)·DN 16% (-1.0%)·NM 42% (±0.2%)|n=352HIGH CONFIDENCE
Actual:UP (+1.92%)✓ matched
+2.09(15m)+2.09(30m)+2.09(60m)+2.09(4h)+2.09(12h)-1.10(24h)
Apr 5 07:44

Bahrain: Fire in operating units at Gulf Petrochemicals Company following an Iranian attack, no inju...

INFS4ESCBULLSTRUCTABS
UP 44%·DN 4%·NM 53%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+1.92%)✗ missed
+2.09(15m)+2.09(30m)+2.09(60m)+2.09(4h)+2.09(12h)+0.43(24h)
Apr 5 05:56

Bapco in Bahrain: Fire extinguished that broke out in one of the storage facilities due to an Irania...

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 44%·DN 4%·NM 53%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+1.75%)✗ missed
+2.09(15m)+2.09(30m)+1.91(60m)+2.09(4h)+1.97(12h)+0.98(24h)
Apr 5 03:40

Massive fire erupted at the Bapco oil refinery in Bahrain after it was hit by missiles and explosive...

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 47% (+1.8%)·DN 5%·NM 48%|n=16DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+1.93%)✗ missed
+2.10(15m)+2.10(30m)+2.10(60m)+2.10(4h)+2.10(12h)+0.88(24h)
Apr 5 02:54

A missile launched from Iran targeted oil storage sites in Bahrain.

MILS2ESCBULLNOISEABS
UP 42%·DN 13%·NM 45%|n=10EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+1.93%)✗ missed
+2.10(15m)+2.10(30m)+2.10(60m)+2.10(4h)+2.10(12h)+0.72(24h)
Apr 5 02:06

Fire breaks out at an energy facility in Kuwait following a drone strike. Follow Press TV on Telegr...

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 44%·DN 4%·NM 53%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+1.93%)✗ missed
+2.10(15m)+2.10(30m)+2.10(60m)+2.10(4h)+2.10(12h)+1.69(24h)
Apr 5 02:00

Iran Allows Iraqi Ships To Use Strait Of Hormuz As Total Weekly Transits Reach HIghest Since War Beg...

SHPS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
UP 41% (+1.8%)·DN 18% (-1.7%)·NM 41% (±0.2%)|n=49STABLE
Actual:UP (+1.93%)✓ matched
+2.10(15m)+1.96(30m)+2.10(60m)+1.96(4h)+2.10(12h)+1.69(24h)
Apr 5 00:12

Fire erupts in Kuwait's Shuwaikh oil sector complex after drone attack, state news agency reports ht...

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 47% (+1.8%)·DN 5%·NM 48%|n=16DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+1.77%)✗ missed
+2.10(15m)+2.10(30m)+1.93(60m)+2.10(4h)+2.10(12h)+2.11(24h)
Apr 5 00:02

India says it made first oil purchase from Iran since 2019 without payment issues https://t.co/KWRq...

ECOS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
Calibrating...n=3
Actual:UP (+1.93%)✗ missed
+2.10(15m)+2.10(30m)+2.10(60m)+2.10(4h)+2.10(12h)+2.47(24h)
Apr 4 21:22

IRGC Navy targets Israeli vessel near Strait of Hormuz, sets it ablaze https://t.co/6m2uWpfsbH

MILS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 33%·DN 7%·NM 60% (±0.1%)|n=16DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+2.04%)✗ missed
+2.22(15m)+2.22(30m)+2.22(60m)+2.16(4h)+2.16(12h)+1.93(24h)
Apr 4 18:36

Iran 🇮🇷: Five petrochemical facilities in Iran’s Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Special Zones hit by Isr...

INFS2ESCBULLNOISEABS
UP 44%·DN 4%·NM 53%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✗ missed
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 18:36

Iraq 🇮🇶: Rumaila North oilfield hit by drones, fires occurred https://t.co/p3CjtDaOUH

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABS
Calibrating...n=3
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✗ missed
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+1.93(24h)
Apr 4 15:52

CNBC reports that India has made its first purchase of Iranian oil in seven years. Follow Press TV ...

ECOS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
Calibrating...n=4
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✗ missed
+1.93(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 14:40

Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex in Iran's Southwestern Khuzestan Province Targeted by Air Attacks,...

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 44%·DN 4%·NM 53%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✗ missed
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+1.93(24h)
Apr 4 13:50

Iran Guards: Israel-linked vessel stopped in Strait of Hormuz after being hit by drone, ship on fire...

SHPS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 33%·DN 7%·NM 60% (±0.1%)|n=16DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✗ missed
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 12:46

India makes first Iranian oil buy in seven years with no payment problems https://t.co/BATpMBVVb0 ht...

ECOS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
Calibrating...n=3
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✗ missed
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 11:54

Mehr News Agency quoting the Petrochemical Industries Company in Iran: We have brought a fire under ...

INFS2ESCBULLNOISEABS
UP 44%·DN 4%·NM 53%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✗ missed
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 11:32

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy: Fire erupts on a ship linked to Israel in the Strait of Hormuz aft...

MILS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 33%·DN 7%·NM 60% (±0.1%)|n=16DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+2.02%)✗ missed
+2.20(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.20(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 10:20

IRAN AUTHORIZES PASSAGE OF VESSELS CARRYING ESSENTIAL GOODS TO IRANIAN PORTS VIA HORMUZ STRAIT - AC...

DIPS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
UP 28%·DN 25%·NM 47% (±0.4%)|n=23DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✗ missed
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 09:52

Iranian media: Power outage in all petrochemical facilities in Mahshahr city as a result of today's ...

INFS2ESCBULLNOISEABS
UP 44%·DN 4%·NM 53%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✗ missed
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 09:34

Basra Security Committee: Complete suspension of operations at the Shalamcheh border crossing with I...

INFS2ESCBULLNOISEABS
Calibrating...n=4
Actual:UP (+2.02%)✓ matched
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.20(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 08:18

petrochemical facility in Bandar Imam was also hit in an air attack by US and Israeli forces, causin...

INFS4ESCBULLSTRUCTABS
UP 44%·DN 4%·NM 53%|n=6EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✗ missed
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 08:16

West’s ’largest oil supply shock in history' STARTS as last tanker from Strait docks Gas crimewave ...

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 41% (+1.8%)·DN 18% (-1.7%)·NM 41% (±0.2%)|n=49STABLE
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✓ matched
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.20(24h)
Apr 4 04:20

Iran war: French and Japanese-owned ships make first Hormuz crossings-scmp

SHPS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
UP 41% (+1.8%)·DN 18% (-1.7%)·NM 41% (±0.2%)|n=49STABLE
Actual:UP (+2.17%)✓ matched
+2.37(15m)+2.37(30m)+2.37(60m)+2.37(4h)+2.37(12h)+2.37(24h)
Apr 4 00:44

Japan LNG tanker passes through Strait of Hormuz, 1st since Iran war begins-KYODO

SHPS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
UP 41% (+1.8%)·DN 18% (-1.7%)·NM 41% (±0.2%)|n=49STABLE
Actual:UP (+2.04%)✓ matched
+2.22(15m)+2.22(30m)+2.22(60m)+2.22(4h)+2.22(12h)+2.20(24h)
Apr 3 17:46

The Habshan gas facilities, the biggest gas processing site in the United Arab Emirates, suffered "s...

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABSMKT CLOSED
UP 46%·DN 14%·NM 40%|n=9EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.00%)✗ missed
+0.00(15m)+0.00(30m)+0.00(60m)+0.00(4h)+2.22(12h)+2.20(24h)
Apr 3 12:34

Japanese LNG tanker crosses Strait of Hormuz, Mitsui O.S.K Lines says

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABSMKT CLOSED
UP 42% (+1.8%)·DN 19% (-1.7%)·NM 40% (±0.2%)|n=48STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.00%)✗ missed
+0.00(15m)+0.00(30m)+0.00(60m)+32.13(4h)+34.35(12h)+34.35(24h)
Apr 3 10:50

Confirmed: the two VLCC oil tankers made it to the other side of the Strait of Hormuz (one carrying ...

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABSMKT CLOSED
UP 43% (+1.8%)·DN 19% (-1.7%)·NM 38% (±0.2%)|n=47STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.00%)✗ missed
+0.00(15m)+0.00(30m)+0.00(60m)+0.00(4h)+34.35(12h)+34.35(24h)
Apr 3 10:10

Macron: France plans a peaceful operation with other countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABSMKT CLOSED
UP 28%·DN 28%·NM 45% (±0.4%)|n=21DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.00%)✓ matched
+0.00(15m)+0.00(30m)+0.00(60m)+0.00(4h)+34.35(12h)+34.33(24h)
Apr 3 08:06

@Politikmit_Kopf All three vessels hugged the Omani coastline without going through the Iranian toll...

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABSMKT CLOSED
UP 43% (+1.8%)·DN 20% (-1.7%)·NM 37% (±0.3%)|n=46STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.00%)✗ missed
+0.00(15m)+0.00(30m)+0.00(60m)+0.00(4h)+32.13(12h)+34.35(24h)
Apr 3 06:46

Drones hit Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi refinery, fires reported, no injuries https://t.co/S2hN3Dhxf0 htt...

INFS4ESCBULLSTRUCTABSMKT CLOSED
UP 51% (+1.8%)·DN 6%·NM 43%|n=15DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.00%)✗ missed
+0.00(15m)+0.00(30m)+0.00(60m)-32.13(4h)+0.00(12h)+2.22(24h)
Apr 3 05:02

US-sanctioned vessel carrying Iranian crude oil has shifted course to China from its previously sign...

SHPS2NTRLBEARNOISEABSMKT CLOSED
UP 44% (+1.8%)·DN 20% (-1.7%)·NM 36% (±0.3%)|n=45STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.00%)✗ missed
+0.00(15m)+0.00(30m)+0.00(60m)-32.13(4h)+0.00(12h)+2.22(24h)
Apr 3 04:34

State news reports that Kuwait Petroleum confirmed fires at Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery after a drone st...

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABSMKT CLOSED
UP 61% (+1.8%)·DN 7%·NM 32%|n=12EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.00%)✗ missed
+0.00(15m)+0.00(30m)+0.00(60m)-32.13(4h)+0.00(12h)+2.22(24h)
Apr 2 22:02

Britain says 40 countries discuss reopening Strait of Hormuz after Iran blockade https://t.co/fSov9x...

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABSMKT CLOSED
UP 52% (+1.1%)·DN 19%·NM 29% (±0.2%)|n=31DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.00%)✗ missed
+0.00(15m)+0.00(30m)+0.00(60m)+0.00(4h)-32.13(12h)+2.22(24h)
Apr 2 21:32

Everything suggests that at least ~4 million barrels of crude exited the Strait of Hormuz today. Lar...

SHPS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABSMKT CLOSED
UP 43%·DN 19%·NM 38%|n=5EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.00%)✗ missed
+0.00(15m)+0.00(30m)+0.00(60m)+0.00(4h)-32.13(12h)+0.00(24h)
Apr 2 19:12

Iran drafting protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz transit oversight: Deputy FM https://t.co/g9c...

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 54% (+1.1%)·DN 20%·NM 26% (±0.2%)|n=30DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.29%)✗ missed
+0.22(15m)+0.47(30m)+0.31(60m)+0.91(4h)+0.91(12h)+0.91(24h)
Apr 2 18:08

Three LNG Tankers Are First To Cross Strait Of Hormuz Since War Started https://t.co/uk3MK26aBj

SHPS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
UP 45% (+1.8%)·DN 20% (-1.7%)·NM 34% (±0.3%)|n=44STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (-0.32%)✗ missed
-0.23(15m)+0.33(30m)-0.35(60m)+0.40(4h)+0.40(12h)+0.40(24h)
Apr 2 17:56

About 40 countries discussed joint action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop Iran holding ‘the ...

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 54% (+1.1%)·DN 21%·NM 25%|n=28DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.03%)✗ missed
+0.01(15m)-0.14(30m)+0.03(60m)+0.42(4h)+0.42(12h)+0.42(24h)
Apr 2 16:12

We forgot to mention the obvious: These are the first two sanctions compliant VLCC supertankers we ...

SHPS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
UP 47% (+1.8%)·DN 21% (-1.7%)·NM 33% (±0.2%)|n=43STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.45%)✗ missed
+0.24(15m)+0.41(30m)+0.48(60m)+0.99(4h)+1.59(12h)+1.59(24h)
Apr 2 16:04

At least three Oman-bound tankers are making their MEGXIT today via the Strait of Hormuz. They are t...

SHPS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
Calibrating...n=4
Actual:DOWN (-0.91%)✗ missed
-0.59(15m)-0.24(30m)-0.99(60m)+0.30(4h)+0.84(12h)+0.84(24h)
Apr 2 15:00

IRAN’S DEP FM GHARIBABADI ANNOUNCED POST-WAR CONSULTATIONS WITH OMAN REGARDING A SAFE PASSAGE PROTOC...

DIPS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
UP 28%·DN 27%·NM 45% (±0.4%)|n=18DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+1.21%)✗ missed
-0.65(15m)-0.04(30m)+1.29(60m)+1.92(4h)+2.33(12h)-29.80(24h)
Apr 2 03:42

Appears that the key AVT-5 refining unit was struck, likely damaging output. https://t.co/gn6JHasgHI

INFS4ESCBULLSTRUCTABS
Calibrating...n=4
Actual:UP (+1.70%)✓ matched
+0.52(15m)+0.92(30m)+1.80(60m)+2.06(4h)+1.43(12h)+3.25(24h)
Apr 1 23:22

SHIPS MUST SUBMIT DETAILED DATA TO IRGC-LINKED INTERMEDIARIES FOR APPROVAL, WITH ACCESS DETERMINED B...

SHPS4ESCBULLSTRUCTABS
Calibrating...n=3
Actual:DOWN (-1.02%)✗ missed
-0.22(15m)-0.17(30m)-1.03(60m)+5.43(4h)+8.53(12h)+8.38(24h)
Apr 1 21:02

Tankers Seized By US Carried 20 Million Barrels Of Iranian Crude To China https://t.co/SSoTA6gz80

SANS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 45% (+1.8%)·DN 16% (-1.1%)·NM 39% (±0.3%)|n=311HIGH CONFIDENCE
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.40%)✗ missed
+0.10(15m)+0.10(30m)+0.40(60m)-0.54(4h)+8.54(12h)+8.59(24h)
Apr 1 19:48

US ENERGY DEPT SOLICITING EXCHANGE OF UP TO 10 MLN BBL OF CRUDE OIL FROM BRYAN MOUND SPR SITE; PROPO...

ECOS4DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 57%·DN 11%·NM 32%|n=12EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.08%)✗ missed
+0.53(15m)+0.67(30m)+0.08(60m)+0.23(4h)+7.37(12h)+8.44(24h)
Apr 1 16:20

TRUMP SPOKE ON WEDNESDAY BY PHONE WITH SAUDI CROWN PRINCE MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, DISCUSSED THE WAR AGA...

DIPS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
Calibrating...n=4
Actual:DOWN (-1.24%)✗ missed
-0.16(15m)-0.11(30m)-1.27(60m)-1.13(4h)+5.24(12h)+5.38(24h)
Apr 1 15:18

US AND IRAN DISCUSSING CEASEFIRE FOR REOPENING STRAIT, OFFICIALS SAY – AXIOS

DIPS4DE-ESCBEARSTRUCTABS
Calibrating...n=3
Actual:UP (+0.58%)✗ missed
+0.00(15m)+0.18(30m)+0.59(60m)-0.52(4h)+4.45(12h)+4.93(24h)
Apr 1 13:40

IRAN HAS POSITIVELY AGREED TO LET SOME SHIPS PASS THROUGH THE HORMUZ STRAIT SAYS RUSSIA

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 50% (+1.8%)·DN 23% (-1.7%)·NM 28% (±0.2%)|n=40STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (-0.39%)✗ missed
-0.46(15m)-0.63(30m)-0.40(60m)-0.85(4h)+3.35(12h)+7.27(24h)
Apr 1 13:00

UK WILL TAKE INITIATIVE TO REOPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ DURING US-IRAN TENSION.

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 58% (+1.3%)·DN 18%·NM 24%|n=21DEVELOPING
Actual:DOWN (-0.91%)✗ missed
+0.72(15m)-0.08(30m)-0.93(60m)-0.17(4h)-2.53(12h)+7.11(24h)
Apr 1 11:18

UK TO HOST GLOBAL CONFERENCE ON REOPENING STRAIT OF HORMUZ

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 60% (+1.3%)·DN 15%·NM 25%|n=20DEVELOPING
Actual:DOWN (-1.29%)✗ missed
+0.05(15m)-1.29(30m)-1.33(60m)-1.30(4h)-2.26(12h)+6.40(24h)
Apr 1 09:20

UK PM STARMER: WE HAVE COMMUNICATED WITH 35 COUNTRIES TO HOLD A MEETING FOR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 61% (+1.4%)·DN 16%·NM 22%|n=18DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+1.09%)✓ matched
+0.47(15m)+0.55(30m)+1.12(60m)-0.16(4h)-2.40(12h)+5.99(24h)
Apr 1 08:42

DRONE ATTACK HITS OIL FIELD IN DUHOK, IRAQI KURDISTAN, SOURCES SAY.

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 43%·DN 16%·NM 41%|n=5EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+1.19%)✓ matched
+0.23(15m)+0.56(30m)+1.21(60m)+0.25(4h)-1.30(12h)+6.32(24h)
Apr 1 07:06

Qatari Defense Ministry: Cruise missile strikes oil tanker chartered by Qatar Energy in its exclusiv...

SHPS3ESCBULLNARRABS
Calibrating...n=4
Actual:UP (+1.11%)✗ missed
-0.49(15m)+0.61(30m)+1.11(60m)+3.65(4h)+1.70(12h)+8.28(24h)
Apr 1 04:04

European Allies Push Back on Trump’s Requests for Military Support Against Iran, Citing Need for De-...

POLS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
UP 30%·DN 27%·NM 43% (±0.4%)|n=17DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (-0.32%)✓ matched
-0.02(15m)+0.02(30m)-0.34(60m)-4.71(4h)-3.15(12h)+1.27(24h)
Apr 1 02:02

Kuwait Airport Fuel Tanks Hit, Major Fire Breaks Out, Says CAA

INFS2ESCBULLNOISEABS
UP 64% (+1.8%)·DN 7%·NM 29%|n=11EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:NO MOVE (-0.35%)✗ missed
-0.17(15m)-0.43(30m)-0.37(60m)-2.62(4h)-4.79(12h)-0.70(24h)
Apr 1 00:46

Japan mulls additional oil release in May amid prolonged Mideast conflict-kyodo

ECOS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 54%·DN 12%·NM 34%|n=11EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+0.90%)✓ matched
-0.19(15m)+0.21(30m)+0.94(60m)+0.82(4h)-2.84(12h)-4.43(24h)
Mar 31 22:20

President Trump says securing the Strait of Hormuz is "not for us" and estimates the U.S. will be do...

POLS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
UP 30%·DN 28%·NM 42%|n=16DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.17%)✓ matched
+0.51(15m)+0.51(30m)+0.18(60m)+1.44(4h)-0.31(12h)-3.53(24h)
Mar 31 19:42

How an Indian LPG tanker escaped Hormuz via an unusual route https://t.co/aY0zLZYPL8 https://t.co/aY...

SHPS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
UP 51% (+1.8%)·DN 20% (-1.9%)·NM 28% (±0.2%)|n=39DEVELOPING
Actual:DOWN (-1.08%)✗ missed
-0.15(15m)-0.54(30m)-1.13(60m)-0.53(4h)-4.68(12h)-3.69(24h)
Mar 31 13:56

China and Pakistan call for an Iran War ceasefire in a new joint statement. Statement also calls ...

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 31%·DN 29%·NM 40%|n=15DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.45%)✓ matched
-0.32(15m)-0.35(30m)+0.48(60m)-2.36(4h)-1.35(12h)-5.94(24h)
Mar 31 10:08

KUWAIT'S KPC REPORTS CREW PUT OUT FIRE ON AL SALMI OIL TANKER AFTER IRANIAN ATTACK IN DUBAI PORT.

INFS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 33%·DN 8%·NM 59% (±0.1%)|n=15DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (-0.10%)✓ matched
-0.50(15m)-0.14(30m)-0.11(60m)-1.21(4h)-3.52(12h)-4.38(24h)
Mar 31 07:58

Three Chinese ships recently passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and China appreciates assistance f...

SHPS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
UP 55% (+1.8%)·DN 19%·NM 26% (±0.3%)|n=36DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.23%)✗ missed
+0.21(15m)+0.23(30m)+0.25(60m)+0.25(4h)-2.25(12h)-6.88(24h)
Mar 31 04:34

Kuwait Petroleum Reports Attack on Crude Tanker Near Dubai, Causing Fire and Hull Damage

SHPS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 39%·DN 10%·NM 51%|n=12EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.31%)✓ matched
-0.30(15m)-0.20(30m)+0.33(60m)-0.56(4h)+0.05(12h)-2.13(24h)
Mar 31 02:58

Iran attacked and set ablaze a fully loaded crude oil tanker off Dubai, as President Trump warned th...

MILS2ESCBULLNOISEABS
UP 36%·DN 11%·NM 54%|n=11EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+1.05%)✗ missed
-0.04(15m)-0.17(30m)+1.11(60m)+1.10(4h)+1.48(12h)-0.79(24h)
Mar 31 01:46

Kuwait's Petroleum Corporation is reporting an Iranian attack earlier tonight on the Kuwaiti-flagged...

SHPS3ESCBULLNARRABS
Calibrating...n=3
Actual:UP (+0.80%)✗ missed
-0.09(15m)+0.07(30m)+0.84(60m)+1.90(4h)+2.36(12h)+0.02(24h)
Mar 30 23:58

AL SALMI (9534793); a Kuwaiti VLCC supertanker laden with ~1.2M barrels of Saudi crude and 800,000 b...

SHPS4ESCBULLSTRUCTABS
UP 47%·DN 2%·NM 51%|n=10EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:DOWN (-1.21%)✗ missed
-0.71(15m)-0.26(30m)-1.33(60m)-2.79(4h)-3.21(12h)-5.86(24h)
Mar 30 21:58

Reports: An oil tanker near Dubai was struck, causing a massive fire Follow: https://t.co/mLGcUTSA3...

SHPS3ESCBULLNARRABS
Calibrating...n=3
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.10%)✗ missed
+0.11(15m)+0.11(30m)+0.11(60m)-3.08(4h)-1.37(12h)-5.51(24h)
Mar 30 20:52

Two Chinese Container Ships That Were Previously Turned Back By Iran, Now Allowed To Transit Hormuz ...

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 57% (+1.8%)·DN 20%·NM 24% (±0.3%)|n=35DEVELOPING
Actual:NO MOVE (-0.05%)✗ missed
-0.14(15m)-0.05(30m)-0.05(60m)+0.77(4h)-1.38(12h)-6.10(24h)
Mar 30 17:44

WHITE HOUSE PRESS SEC. LEAVITT: EXPECT AROUND 20 TANKERS TO PASS THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN COMING ...

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRNRM
UP 57% (+1.8%)·DN 18%·NM 25% (±0.3%)|n=40STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (-0.34%)✗ missed
-0.29(15m)-0.58(30m)-0.37(60m)+0.87(4h)-0.33(12h)-3.82(24h)
Mar 30 17:06

Two Chinese commercial vessels from COSCO successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz today. https:/...

SHPS2DE-ESCBEARNOISENRM
UP 57% (+1.8%)·DN 18%·NM 25% (±0.3%)|n=40STABLE
Actual:NO MOVE (+0.40%)✗ missed
+0.49(15m)+0.55(30m)+0.43(60m)+1.34(4h)-0.17(12h)-2.77(24h)
Mar 30 13:16

AKAZAWA ANNOUNCED THAT JAPAN HAS REQUESTED THE G7 AND IEA TO CONSIDER MORE FLEXIBLE ACTIONS, SUCH AS...

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRNRM
UP 59%·DN 2%·NM 39%|n=10EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+0.89%)✓ matched
+0.62(15m)+0.84(30m)+0.96(60m)+0.48(4h)+1.08(12h)+0.28(24h)
Mar 29 19:12

Iran Allowing 20 More Ships Through Strait Of Hormuz, Pakistan Says https://t.co/aZmPWQOao5

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 44% (+1.8%)·DN 25%·NM 31% (±0.3%)|n=27DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+2.48%)✓ matched
+2.61(15m)+2.61(30m)+2.61(60m)+2.34(4h)+3.44(12h)+2.39(24h)
Mar 29 16:34

Countries met in Pakistan to prevent disruption in oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key ...

DIPS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
UP 53%·DN 24%·NM 24%|n=13EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.48%)✓ matched
+2.61(15m)+2.61(30m)+2.61(60m)+2.61(4h)+2.39(12h)+2.16(24h)
Mar 29 16:24

The countries meeting in Pakistan have floated proposals to Washington tied to maritime traffic and ...

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 40%·DN 18%·NM 42%|n=9EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.48%)✗ missed
+2.61(15m)+2.61(30m)+2.61(60m)+2.61(4h)+2.36(12h)+2.31(24h)
Mar 29 15:06

Pakistan hosts regional powers for Iran talks, with focus on Hormuz proposals https://t.co/nCm3rC78u...

DIPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 53%·DN 24%·NM 24%|n=13EARLY SIGNAL
Actual:UP (+2.49%)✓ matched
+2.62(15m)+2.62(30m)+2.62(60m)+2.61(4h)+2.71(12h)+2.35(24h)
Mar 29 14:12

Kharg Island is currently loading five tankers with crude oil. That's a total of 7.73 million barrel...

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
Calibrating...n=3
Actual:UP (+2.49%)✓ matched
+2.62(15m)+2.62(30m)+2.62(60m)+2.62(4h)+2.86(12h)+2.77(24h)
Mar 29 12:52

Two India-bound LPG tankers clear Strait of Hormuz, government says https://t.co/wH5wspzZG8 https://...

SHPS2DE-ESCBEARNOISEABS
UP 44% (+1.8%)·DN 25%·NM 31% (±0.3%)|n=27DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+2.49%)✓ matched
+2.62(15m)+2.62(30m)+2.62(60m)+2.62(4h)+3.06(12h)+1.85(24h)
Mar 29 09:34

MAYUREE NAREE (9323649) is now up on our Lost and Found page. She's at Qeshm Island, Iran. https://t...

SHPS3ESCBULLNARRABS
UP 44% (+1.8%)·DN 18% (-1.1%)·NM 38% (±0.3%)|n=244HIGH CONFIDENCE
Actual:UP (+2.55%)✓ matched
+2.69(15m)+2.69(30m)+2.69(60m)+2.69(4h)+2.69(12h)+2.95(24h)
Mar 29 08:14

On 2026-03-16 (see left pic), we informed clients about widespread GPS/GNSS jamming conducted by the...

SHPS3DE-ESCBEARNARRABS
UP 43% (+1.8%)·DN 23%·NM 33% (±0.3%)|n=30DEVELOPING
Actual:UP (+2.55%)✓ matched
+2.69(15m)+2.61(30m)+2.69(60m)+2.69(4h)+2.69(12h)+3.57(24h)

All ingested events regardless of model eligibility. Included for full transparency.

Based on historical patterns which may not repeat. Not financial advice.

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CrisisArc measures reaction probability calibration, not directional accuracy. Nothing on this platform constitutes financial advice.