CrisisArc tracks geopolitical events in real-time, classifies them through a five-gate relevance filter, and measures how Brent crude actually reacts — not how analysts think it should.
METHODOLOGY
Continuous polling of tier 1–4 sources. Entity extraction, deduplication, and clustering within 30-minute windows.
Five-gate relevance filter eliminates noise. Only ~8–12% of raw events are model-eligible. Every rejection is logged.
Bayesian engine computes directional probabilities. Prediction locks are immutable — written before outcome prices are observed.
Brent prices captured at t+15m, t+60m, t+240m. Every prediction scored against three baselines. Full transparency.
CAPABILITIES
Every headline passes through crisis relevance, oil relevance, article kind, actionability, and event taxonomy gates. Only genuine market-moving events reach the model.
Real-time scenario probabilities — escalation, stalemate, de-escalation — updated with every classified event. Prior decay ensures stale signals fade.
Historical reaction probabilities per event type. We measure how Brent actually moves at 15m, 60m, and 240m horizons — not how it "should" move.
Every prediction is locked before the outcome. No retroactive edits. Full audit trail exportable as CSV. Transparent by design.
Four-tier source credibility system from Reuters/Bloomberg (T1) to unverified OSINT (T4). Corroboration factors increase weak-source reliability.
Automatic regime detection — SHOCK, ABSORPTION, POLICY_RESPONSE, NORMALIZATION — adjusts model behavior as crises evolve through distinct phases.
TRANSPARENCY
PUBLIC BETA — Track record based on 200+ model-eligible events. Past performance does not indicate future results. CrisisArc provides information, not financial advice.
PRICING
Follow the crisis. See the scoreboard.
Real-time intelligence for active traders. Price locked forever.
Future price: $29/mo — lock $19 forever as a Founder
API access, scenario engine, portfolio impact tools.
Start monitoring geopolitical risk with the same data infrastructure institutional desks are building internally.
Get Started — FreeCrisisArc measures reaction probability calibration, not directional accuracy. Nothing on this platform constitutes financial advice.